Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) statistically post-processed by PROGNOS-MLR

Property Value
identifier urn:wmo:md:ca-eccc-msc:71cb9009-1a55-4c8e-8b5c-35dfce7cabff
type dataset
created 2025-07-23T00:00:00Z
updated
title Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) statistically post-processed by PROGNOS-MLR
description Statistical post-processing of forecasts from numerical weather and environmental models, including the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS), helps reduce systematic biases and error variance in raw forecasts. This is achieved by establishing optimized statistical relationships between observations recorded at stations and numerical model outputs at nearby grid points. The PROGNOS system is a software package developed by Environment and Climate Change Canada that enables this. Relationships are built using the 'Model Output Statistics' (MOS) method and multiple linear regression (MLR). Currently, only the air temperature at 1.5 meters above the Earth's surface is statistically post-processed. The absence of statistically post-processed forecasts can be due to the unavailability of a statistical model caused by insufficient observation quality or quantity. The geographical region covered by this data includes the territory covered by Canadian meteorological stations and some American buoys. For the GDPS, statistically post-processed forecasts are available at the same issuance frequency as the raw forecasts produced by numerical models (e.g., 00Z, 12Z) and at hourly forecast lead times, from 00 to 84 hours, and then every 3 hours, from 87 to 168 hours.
wmo:dataPolicy core
keywords
  • Statistical post-processing
  • Machine learning
  • Multiple Linear Regression
  • PROGNOS
  • Environmental forecast
  • Point forecast
themes concepts: id: Weather forecasts
id: Air temperature

scheme: https://canada.multites.net/cst/EAEAD1E6-7DD2-4997-BE7F-40BFB1CBE8A2/CST20230912.rdf
concepts: id: weather

scheme: https://codes.wmo.int/wis/topic-hierarchy/earth-system-discipline
contacts addresses: deliveryPoint: 77 Westmorland Street, suite 260
city: Fredericton
administrativeArea: New Brunswick
postalCode: E3B 6Z4
country: Canada

roles: host
organization: Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Meteorological Service of Canada
name: National Inquiry Response Team / Équipe nationale de réponse des demandes du public
position: National Inquiry Response Team
hoursOfService: 0700h - 1500h EST
contactInstructions: email
phones: value: +18199972800

emails: value: ECWeather-Meteo@ec.gc.ca

links: rel: canonical
type: text/html
href: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change.html

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